Here you can read how Carwin thinks "Cain's cardio, kickboxing, and elite level wrestling will give him a slight edge in this fight."
I say this is bogus. Why? Let's break it down, from information on Brock Lesnars and Cain Velasquez' UFC fighter profiles.
Size/Cardio
Brock is taller by 2 inches.Brock Lesnar walks around at 280+ pounds. This means he's going to cut water weight to make the 265 cut off for Heavy Weight. Cain weighs in usually under 240. Cain Velasquez can run, sure. But 40 pounds of extra redneck will dismantle that in a heartbeat if he's on his back or on the receiving end of a 4XL glove punch to the face. People often forget that Brock has gone the distance in his fight back at UFC 87 against Heath Herring.
Advantage: LESNAR
Wrestling and ground game
These two fighters are both from wrestling backgrounds, and wrestling makes or breaks a fighters ground game (trust me, my high school doesn't have a wrestling team, and hence when I train I get the most difficulty from wrestlers). Brocks wrestling is more "elite" than Cain Velasquez. Brock being the nationally ranked #1 heavyweight collegiate wrestler in 2000, winning the national championship for the Big Ten conference both in '99 and '00. Cain placed highest at ASU in the national wrestling championships at #4 in 2006.
Aside from wrestling; Cain Velasquez has only gone for 2 submissions in his UFC career, none of which are successful. Brock Lesnar has also gone for 2, one of which was successful, against a bigger, meaner man than Cain has ever faced (I of course am referring to Shane Carwin.) Also, Cain has never lost a fight before, and Lesnars only loss comes from a submission via Frank Mir, who was lucky because Lesnar was stomping him prior to that happening. Paired with his obvious size advantage and his credentials and ability to win by submission, Lesnar definitely takes the ground game.
Advantage: LESNAR
Striking
Cain Velasquez has landed 262 significant (cleanly landed) strikes since fighting in the UFC, over 6 fights, for an average of 44 strikes per fight, after rounding. Brock Lesnar has landed 147, over 5 fights, averaging 29, rounding down. Cain Velasquez has finished 7 of his 8 wins by T/KO, all punches. He packs a mean punch. On the other hand, Lesnar has survived an onslaught of massive proportion by Shane Carwin in his last fight, landing 8 to Carwins 40. Despite the size difference, Cain shows some of the meanest fist throwing action in the Ultimate Fighting Championship.
Advantage: VELASQUEZ
The reason why I disagree with Shane Carwin on this fight is because 1. Brock Lesnar is a mountain of a man who was a national champion athlete. 2. Cain Velasquez is giving up 30 pounds, and no matter how long you can run on a treadmill, it's tough to deal with getting your face beat in by ham hock sized fists attached to a big angry white, hairless gorilla named Brock Lesnar.
I'm not discrediting Velasquez in any way, he's a great fighter, but, after one round of trading, Cain will realize that Brock is no pushover, his hands are full, and Brock has more gas in his tank than anyone has given him credit for. In round two, Brock Lesnar will tackle (oh yeah, he made the Vikings roster in the NFL but was cut for w/e reason. Their loss, huh?) him, drag him against the cage, and pound his face in.
OUTCOME: LESNAR BY TKO in RD 2.
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